The treasuries chart is completely insane, with the 10 year yields plummeting below 50 bps, and the 30 year below 1% for the first time ever. Oil just plummeted 30% due to an OPEC conflict. I’d expect the S&P to continue tanking this week amidst the rising uncertainty and flight to liquidity. The startup fundraising market just got absolutely f*cking walloped.
There aren’t many measures the Fed has left to calm the markets, as this isn't strictly a financial crisis. Expect the MMT narrative to pick-up steam and Congress to pass a relief package that eclipses the multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill we saw during the last financial crisis.
What about crypto?
Outside of BTC and ETH, I expect a late 2018 caliber bloodbath as nothing is critical to own outside of those two assets. In a market that may go down 20, 30, 40% the parlor games of the sh*tcoin casino are over.
Crypto assets with strong fundamentals will finally have their day in the sun, and we’ll see the decoupling of good and weak projects. There are perhaps 50 assets that could do moderately well in the next 2–3 years in USD terms. Few will outperform crypto’s monies.
Crypto infrastructure M&A is about to go into hyperdrive. Investment round prices will come down, but I still predict great teams and projects will get funded as decentralized technologies get catalyzed as part of the coming response to some truly breathtaking macro disruptions.
The full moon has been cancelled and soaring bitcoin prices will likely take another cycle to come to fruition. Still, crypto’s mainstream moment as a utility may finally, if quietly, be here.